TAPE is @ major inflection point. To analyze we have to look @ the following to see what they are trying to say :
-S&P 500 @ 1692.09
-RSI @ 68.24
-Oil @ $108.05
-Gold @ $1292.90
-VIX @ 12.54
-Bulls @ 52.1%
-Bears @ 19.8%
-AAPL & AMZN earning
Each of the above are a catalyst for a major move......direction depends on where we are looking @......
I have color coded them to show where the direction could be......it is important to pay attention to RED & GREEN....
-Complacency is the-most dangerous stage in investing or trading......
-Earning season IS coming to an end, as expected Techs are showing weak result which will be reinforced until Q4.........
-Base Metals are in no position to make any notable move yet, could be 2014 story.
-AG are also in DEEP trouble with grain prices hitting low & inventory on the rise.
-Financial are the only group which IS improving with a tick UP in interest rates.
SO..it is time to reflect on what has been a great run in 2013 so far...BUT we have another FIVE+ plus months to go.......next 75 days may be challenging.....
It is wise to book gains ASAP.........
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
7 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Although tech has been a damper this earnings season so far, the majority of cyclical companies continue to show improvement trends (financials/industrials). For many reasons, which I detailed in my writeup, I expect a slow grind higher here in the market with different industries taking the lead on any given day (that rotating bull market creep).
A quiet summer for a change would be nice!
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Next 75 days usual catalyst are MIA....
YES.... even @ the lowest point in market history some stocks do go up......
Seasonality is in play now.....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
As part of my effort to rebalance some, I sold BTU @ 16.461 and WLT @ 13.532. I think of the commodity stocks I own, these are the most vulnerable to a tough quarter.
BTU reports tomorrow morning and I may try to buy a dip if we get one. Otherwise, something like a financial might work for me.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good idea to rebalance & avoid any "potential pitfall"
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I would definitely buy FCX if it pulls back after earnings tomorrow morning. They might get hit on Q2 due to the Grasberg closure, but that is already a fixed problem. Additionally, their purchase of oil exploration assets seems awfully smart right about now.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
FCX is above 50 DMA & looking strong.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I see that--if it crashes into close on Q2 fears, I'll try to sneak in then. Otherwise, if it stays strong into the close, I have to hope for an initial weak reaction. Unfortunately, it may reverse higher by market open after the report. So tough to find entries on this market...
Stocktrader
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