Indices recovered nicely from early weakness. By the close all indices were green.
S&P 500 @ 1691.65, high 1691.85
RSI @ 65.42
CMF @ 0.230
Internals were :
Down volume led by 1.08 to 1 in NYSE & 1.29 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.11 to 1 in NYSE & 1.64 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 61 in NYSE & 113 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 1.93% @ 12.72
Oil @ $104.70
Gold @ $1321.50
Canadian $ Down 8 tick @ 97.09
In my portfolio :
Sold FB @ $34.60
Bought CLF @ $19.98
Here is my portfolio weighting :
AUY 33.37%
CLF 29.19%
MU 23.30%
AMD 14.14%
Exposure 121%
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included AMD CLF
KOG TCK WLT JCP GMCR LNKD TSLA
AMZN GRPN DNKN EBAY YUM
LVS BIDU GG EGO AEM
ECA QCOM SBUX.....
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
After a week of many earnings, the portfolio ended up 1.21% versus the S&P's -0.03%.
Biggest Winners: MDSO (+18.5% before selling), TCK (+7.9%), MODN (+7.3%), KOG/X/TXTR/KORS (+4.2-5.0%)
Biggest Losers: OMED (-20.1% even with a 7.6% savings on a sell/buyback), WLH (-4.8%), CLDX (-4.6% before selling), YHOO (-3.4%)
Here's the way the portfolio looks now. Note that my "standard" position size has varied in the past, but currently gives a good representation of how I construct and think about the portfolio:
~150% standard position size:
TXTR - construction industry cloud software
KORS - specialty retailer
~125% standard position size (due to stock appreciation):
MODN - revenue management cloud software
TCK - diversified Canadian miner, copper/met coal/zinc
~100% standard position size:
KOG - oil driller in Bakken
CMI - truck engines
M - department store
X - steel maker
RDN - mortgage insurer
FCX - copper/gold miner, oil+gas driller
WLK - commodity chemicals
TRLA - housing internet site
CLF - iron ore and met coal miner
SODA - home beverage carbonation systems
YHOO - diverse internet site
~75% standard position size:
WLH - homebuilder
~60% standard position size:
OMED - biotech
The major moves this week including paring back a bit of the commodity exposure by selling BTU and WLT and buying FCX. Selling WLT saved 17.7%! I also sold CLDX and MDSO after big runs and picked up RDN and TRLA for breakouts. Not much has really happened on these fronts yet. All of the stocks I sold are still on my radar for repurchase if opportunities arise.
The earnings of my companies this week were mostly favorable (MDSO, TCK, CLF, BTU, RDN) and only FCX is trading modestly lower than pre-earnings. We definitely have seen the positive effects of cost-cutting and capex reductions at miners allowing them to maintain profitability during the depressed commodity prices of Q2. With improved economic activity and even more rationalization of output, I look forward to more gains from the commodity stocks although the trade is mentally difficult to maintain sometimes.
This week features earnings from portfolio holdings CMI, WLK, X (all TUES AM), SODA (WED AM), TRLA (WED PM), and KOG (THU PM, CC FRI AM). Additionally, we see earnings from my other watched companies of INVN (TUE PM), WLT (THU AM), and ETN (FRI AM). There are so many companies that it's hard to comment on them all, but notably I worry most about CMI in a weak environment still, SODA being overscrutinized and a weak chart, and TRLA having a good result but selling off due to housing worries going forward.
In the general market, we could see other major moves. Wednesday sees Q2 GDP in the morning which is indicated to be around 1%. The Fed decision later that day probably will be dovish given the weak GDP and cracks in housing will be hard to ignore. What to watch for though is the reaction subsequent to the meeting in either hours or days. Does the taper come back to investors' minds as it inevitably gets closer? Thursday morning sees rate decisions from the BOE and ECB, and Draghi's commentary especially will be watched. Friday morning sees the all-important jobs numbers, and I think we can expect another roughly in-line report, although the non-layoffs of car companies around July 4th might skew it to the upside?
Overall, I expect a very volatile week with summer liquidities in the face of big earnings, central bank decisions, and payroll numbers. I think we could possibly see a nice ramp for three days into the Fed and the end of the month, but would be careful after. I will be extremely busy with earnings all around. I am looking more for exit points than entries right now, but really any decent pullback is a buying opportunity for the future.
Good luck to everyone! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Nice recap of methodology & market outlook.....
For a change i am more bullish than you....
Saleem
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