Indices closed mixed.
S&P 500 @ 2204.72, high 2204.72, low 2194.51
RSI @ 68.53
CMF @ 0.145
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.56 to 1 in NYSE & 1.21 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.02 to 1 in NYSE & 1.43 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 239 in NYSE & 330 in Nasdaq
VIX UP .16% @ 12.43
Oil @ $47.96
Gold @ $1189.30
Here is my weighting :
CMG 32.54%
BIDU 21.62%
CNQ 17.71%
AMD 11.63%
TWLO 9.90%
WB 6.60%
About market, TAPE was strong again and closed @ absolute high of the day in most indices while missing by minute fractions in others, a mark of incredible technical strength.Dow, S&P 500 & Russell all closed @ new all time highs, Russell has been up 14 days in a row, which is a 20 year old record. Today fed minutes confirmed that December interest rate hike is a given, even that news was ignored by this TAPE. Gold is @ February low.. All i can see that "it's not time yet" for indices to head south. Overbought maybe, but in Y2K rally, we remained overbought for a very long time, pullbacks never lasted more than a day in different stocks. Always see how we close, then draw conclusion about any market.
PS...enjoy your thanksgiving holidays with friends and family.
I will be away on an urgent need in family, thus unable to write my BLOG until December 4th with my usual Sunday BLOG around 2 PM. In the meantime , i hope that stocktrader, can update in comment sections below about his trades, opinions and closing commentary. Thanks in advance to stocktrader for his contribution while i am away.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
28 comments:
Hi Saleem and Stocktrader
I want to wish you and your family a happy thanksgiving day. Cherish the spirit of love and family reunion. May God continue to bless you all.
Joseph
Hi Joseph,
Thanks for your message, same to you and your family.
Saleem
Hi Joseph,
Thank you for the well wishes over this holiday weekend. I hope all is well for you and your family also!
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Added to MET @ 55.38
With interest rates having risen so much, the stock market up so much, and general financial regulation likely relaxed, including the ever-important SIFI designations for insurers, I can't think of a better investment right now than MET or PRU. The increased earnings power and potential for capital return has grown immensely. With valuations still under 10x old EPS estimates and below book values, I think these are a great combination of positive potential with little risk.
Portfolio: MET(2x weight), AKS TRIL LYB M, SPLK ZYNE MCHP, CY, cash 13.1%
Stocktrader
CLOSING POST: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 25TH, 2016
Indices closed UP .34-.39% to close at record highs again.
S&P 500 @ 2213.35, high 2213.35, low 2206.27
RSI @ 70.69
CMF @ 0.198
Internals were:
NYSE Advancers led by 1.82 to 1
NASDAQ Advancers led by 1.80 to 1
(Volume data not yet official)
NYSE New Highs/Lows were 219/13
NASDAQ New Highs/Lows were 304/15
VIX -.09 to 12.34
10 yr note +.01 to 2.36%
Oil -2.00 to 45.96
Gold -6.30 to 1186.10
Stocks which closed UP by 1%+: CLF BAC WLH TOL MU AKS LYB NEFF GM F TSLA AAL JKS FSLR SPWR PANW SPLK ACIA HPQ CSCO SAP SINA CTRP ASHR SHAK AZN XON JUNO MACK SQ TREE PLNT
Stock which closed DOWN by 1%+: PXD FCX CNX COP APC EMN CE KRA TSL M JCP KSS VIPS YELP MTCH TWLO SWKS AMBA DRYS Z DDD HAIN FIT REGN SRPT TRIL ZYNE
About market, TAPE continued its march into fresh all-time high territory on this quiet, shortened session. Ten of eleven sectors closed higher. Energy was the only laggard amid pessimism of an OPEC deal next week as Saudi Arabia cancelled a non-OPEC meeting scheduled for Monday.
Next post Sunday afternoon with commentary and outlook.
Stocktrader
MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK: WEEK OF SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 27TH, 2016
It has been a run for the ages: the S&P 500 is up 6.2% since Nov 4th, but that doesn't tell the whole story... The Russell 2000 is up 15.8% during that same time!
Any company that benefits from domestic growth and future tax cuts is counting on a Republican election sweep to boost profits in a major way. Financials, industrials, base metals, and small caps are all leading the way. So, the question is whether this "speculation" has run its course or if there are more gains to come.
The S&P 500 finally has reached the magical "overbought" RSI >70 of 70.69 but the Russell 2000 is well above @ 79.91 already having been overbought for nearly two weeks. This would normally indicate a high likelihood of selloff, but the seasonality is playing a big part in the trading dynamic.
As we approach December, the winners tend to keep winning and trading slows. There isn't incentive to sell as potential capital gains play a restrictive role in selling and managers don't want to be left out of rallies. So, barring some kind of problem with the Republican administration and its efforts, this trend will likely continue into year end. We will not go straight up, but dips will likely be short and shallow. That means dips should be bought, and investors should stick with the strong stocks.
This particular week we see the November jobs report. I don't think there's any number that truly matters here because investors are looking forward to an economy of next year and beyond. Avoid the urge to "overtrade" during December and let the trend play out.
Good luck to everyone! :)
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
It was another good week with my portfolio +2.23% outperforming all indices except the Russell 2000 (+2.40%). YTD gains now stand at +36.33% with about a month to go. AKS (+18.1%) led the weekly charge higher while my biotechs ZYNE (-8.4%) and TRIL (-4.0%) fell. SPLK reports this week and it should be interesting to see how they are doing after mixed results in the sector so far.
Portfolio: MET(2x weighting), AKS TRIL LYB M, SPLK ZYNE MCHP, CY, cash 13.1%
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Bought FDX @ 190.75
I really wanted to buy this much earlier in this run but at least I got a dip today. FDX has the tailwinds of both a strengthening economy and the significant shift to e-commerce. With integration savings ahead of it, I think the earnings potential is high.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for the daily market update. Nice to see your portfolio is in great shape except the biotech. Eventually, it will also turn around. I wish I had hold on to X and AKS. Both have gone up so much.
Once again thanks for the market update and your views on your stock picks. It does help me a lot. Good luck with your trades.
Joseph
CLOSING POST: MONDAY, NOVEMBER 28TH, 2016
Indices closed DOWN .28-.56% on profit taking.
S&P 500 @ 2201.72, high 2211.14, low 2200.36
RSI @ 64.29
CMF @ 0.201
Internals were:
NYSE DOWN Volume led by 2.18 to 1
NASDAQ DOWN Volume led by 2.03 to 1
NYSE Decliners led by 1.93 to 1
NASDAQ Decliners led by 2.34 to 1
NYSE New Highs/Lows were 137/16
NASDAQ New Highs/Lows were 219/27
VIX +.81 to 13.15
10 yr note -.052 to 2.320%
US$ Index -0.34 to 101.16
Oil +1.12 to 47.08
Gold +7.70 to 1193.80
Stocks which closed UP by 1%+: SPWR FSLR NEFF SINA BIDU TWTR MTCH VRX WDC FNSR FRSH
Stock which closed DOWN by 2%+: PXD APC BAC C DB CMI NAV AA X AKS HUN CC KRA TSL M JCP SSYS DDD PANW PFPT CYBR FEYE DATA NEWR CSOD TWLO YY MOMO VIPS OLED INVN ACIA CIEN OCLR SODA PLNT PAY CMG PNRA SHAK JUNO KITE XON MACK TRIL ZYNE
AH movers: THO +8.6%, VNET +4.7%, ZTO +2.5%, SCVL -10.9% all after earnings, TIVO +4.8% on NFLX licensing
AH futures flat
AH oil down, AH gold flat
About market, TAPE *finally* took a breather after the ferocious move higher. Even higher oil and a weaker dollar couldn't add support, a huge sign a rest was needed. After today's move, the RSIs for the major indices are back into "healthy" territory from overbought, and even the Russell 2000 refreshed nicely. Expect some possible morning downside follow-through but afternoon bargain hunting again. **The key strategy now is to identify top-performing stocks and buy on these minor pullbacks.** They have a tendency to show resurgent strength quickly and consistently.
Stocktrader
CLOSING POST: TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 29TH, 2016
Indices closed UP .12%-.21% in a digestion day.
S&P 500 @ 2204.66, high 2210.46, low 2198.15
RSI @ 65.15
CMF @ 0.244
Internals were:
NYSE DOWN Volume led by 1.38 to 1
NASDAQ UP Volume led by 1.11 to 1
NYSE Decliners led by 1.06 to 1
NASDAQ Decliners led by 1.05 to 1
NYSE New Highs/Lows were 127/26
NASDAQ New Highs/Lows were 199/35
VIX -0.25 to 12.90
10 yr note -0.018 to 2.302%
$USD -0.42 to 100.95 ($USD is a continuously trading vehicle so it is hard to find the "close" price. I found my reference now so this data should be more consistent.)
Oil -1.85 to 45.23
Gold +0.00 to 1190.80 (same problem as with $USD, reference fixed, problem solved for future)
Stocks which closed UP by 1%+: CNX HUN CC TROX GM RCL CCL LEN DHI TOL IBP LULU JCP DKS SBUX MJN RUTH FRPT CELG KITE AGN ALXN WDAY RHT BABA BIDU CTRP MOMO ASHR MTCH AMAT CIEN DB
Stocks which closed DOWN by 1%+: CLF TCK FCX COP APC CF AA X AKS SCCO LYB WLK JKS CSIQ FSLR SPWR TSLA ACIA OCLR MU AMBA QRVO OLED INVN CMG FRSH M RL PLNT FIT SSYS DDD PANW PFPT NOW WUBA TREE PAY VRX MYL JUNO MACK ZYNE
AH earnings: SPLK (+6.9%), ADSK (-2.0%), NTNX (-3.8%)
AH futures slightly higher
AH oil up, AH gold up
About market, TAPE fought through a digestion day today with the averages strength masking some internal weakness. Energy and metals were hit hardest on weak oil and profit taking but most other sectors were not much changed.
There are rumors of large rebalancings to take place tomorrow given bonds have performed so poorly and stocks have performed so well this month. This potential rebalance would have the effect of selling stocks to buy bonds. We may have seen some of that anticipation in the last hour today when stocks fell well off the highs. If this turns out true, it is merely a technical event and should not shake anyone's conviction on their particular stocks. Hopefully by the end of the week we'll be back to fundamental trading, especially with the jobs number Friday morning. Look for OPEC's final decision tomorrow morning to make things interesting also.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Trimmed some AKS @ 9.45 to take profits.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Added to SPLK @ 59.71 to bring it to a full position.
I was somewhat underweight due to fears of the sector. The report last night increased my conviction that they can outperform their peers, and I want it to be fully represented in the portfolio.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Used my relatively small amount of cash to buy SWN @ 11.17.
I think the selloff is an overreaction today, especially with natural gas prices continuing higher. I think it could be a good strategic acquisition for someone also.
Portfolio: MET, LYB TRIL SPLK FDX M, AKS MCHP ZYNE CY SWN, cash 0.0%
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for the market update. Since I was in a meeting I didn't follow the market. I see that most of the stocks are down especially the biotech. It is good to take profit whenever we can. SPLK report was good and the stock is up even though the Nasdaq is down. Good luck with your trade.
Joseph
Hi guys,
Due to an evening commitment, the closing post will be up to two hours later than usual. I hope it can still be of use when it is posted.
Joseph, thank you for the kind words throughout the week! I've tried not to post conversational talk too much since this thread is extremely long with Saleem being gone for the week and I want to make the daily market information still as easy to find as possible. I hope you are finding ways to profit! :)
Stocktrader
CLOSING POST: WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 30TH, 2016
Indices closed UP 0.01% - DOWN 1.05% on this month-ending day.
S&P 500 @ 2198.81, high 2214.10, low 2198.81
RSI @ 61.96
CMF @ 0.186
Internals were:
NYSE UP Volume led by 1.06 to 1
NASDAQ DOWN Volume led by 2.13 to 1
NYSE Decliners led by 1.52 to 1
NASDAQ Decliners led by 1.81 to 1
NYSE New Highs/Lows were 193/48
NASDAQ New Highs/Lows were 223/52
VIX +0.43 to 13.33
10 yr note -0.066 to 2.368%
$USD +0.59 to 101.54
Oil +4.21 to 49.44
Gold -16.90 to 1173.90
Stocks which closed UP by 1%+: PXD COP APC CNX FCX SCCO CAT URI CF AGU MOS POT BAC JPM C MS GS DB MET KRE TREE ETN CMI NAV X AKS DOW DD WLK EMN CE LYB KRA HUN OLN CC FSLR JKS CSIQ DRYS GPRO SQ HPQ WDC QCOM OLED NEWR TWTR MYL KITE TDOC
Stocks which closed DOWN by 1%+: AA SPWR LUV UAL RCL CCL LEN DHI TOL WLH MHK IBP NEFF TGT KORS LULU NKE RL DKS ELY TMUS RUTH PLNT VRX AZN GILD CELG REGN ALXN JUNO ALKS GWPH ZYNE TRIL MACK PFPT CUDA DATA CSOD CRM FB MSFT GOOG AMZN YELP MTCH RHT SAP BABA BIDU YY WUBA SINA MOMO DDD PAY INTC LRCX AVGO CRUS QRVO AMBA ACIA FNSR OCLR LITE TASR
AH movers: GES -13.1%, PVH -0.4%, LZB +5.4%, BOX +1.1% all on earnings, COL +2.5% on activist pressure, BLUE +25.0% on positive trial results
AH futures mixed
AH oil down, AH gold flat
About market, TAPE got an initial boost from overnight OPEC comments signaling a deal was near (and we eventually did get that official deal). Pro-growth commentary from Trump's two new appointments (Treasury & Commerce) added to initial positive sentiment. Heap on the strong ADP employment data (216k vs 160k expected) and Chicago PMI (57.6 vs 52.0 expected) and we really had a nice start...but then the divergence started. Energy and financials were so strong that they sapped the strength out of almost everything else. The NASDAQ closed with a 1% decline and the Russell 2000 lost part of its huge monthly gain. We also saw large sell orders near the close suggestive of the rebalance I spoke about yesterday.
Now that November is out the way, we can focus on December. It is usually a quiet month with winners continuing to win, and losers continuing to lose. Given the huge runs in many of the "hottest" stocks at the moment, we may see some pauses, but lack of year-end selling should ultimately lead to more gains in those sectors. Good to luck to everyone in December! :)
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
My mistake on the 10 yr note--it was actually UP 0.066 to 2.368%. Sorry for the confusion as the rise in yields helped propel a very strong financial sector today.
Stocktrader
CLOSING POST: THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1ST, 2016
Indices closed UP 0.36% - DOWN 1.36% with the NASDAQ seeing the large decline.
S&P 500 @ 2191.08(-0.35%), high 2202.60, low 2187.44
RSI @ 57.93
CMF @ 0.181
Internals were:
NYSE DOWN Volume led by 1.11 to 1
NASDAQ DOWN Volume led by 3.07 to 1
NYSE Decliners led by 1.66 to 1
NASDAQ Decliners led by 1.61 to 1
NYSE New Highs/Lows were 228/108
NASDAQ New Highs/Lows were 201/75
VIX +0.74 to 14.07
10 yr note +0.073 to 2.441%
$USD -0.44 to 101.10
Oil +1.62 to 51.06
Gold -4.50 to 1169.40
Stocks which closed UP by 1%+: CLF MOS URI NEFF IBP BAC C JPM MS GS DB KRE PRU MET ETN GE AKS STLD GM F BWLD CMG RUTH NKE KSS TASR VIPS ASHR ZYNE
Stocks which closed DOWN by 2%+: FCX TCK RCL CCL HPQ WDC SSYS DDD CSIQ SPWR MU SWKS AVGO CRUS QRVO INVN QCOM INTC TXN AMAT CY MCHP LRCX SYMC PFPT PANW FEYE FTNT CYBR SPLK NEWR CSOD NOW WDAY CRM ORCL RHT VMW FB YELP TWTR TWLO ACIA CIEN FNSR OCLR LITE TSLA MDSO PAY BABA BIDU WUBA MOMO NOAH SINA Z MTCH TREE MHK TROX ALKS XON GWPH MACK TRIL VRX AGN
AH movers: FIVE +11.1%, ULTA +5.9%, ASNA +3.8%, WDAY -11.8%, GIII -9.8%, AMBA -6.0%, SWHC -5.4%, ZUMZ -5.3% all after earnings, SBUX -3.3% after CEO announced he was stepping down April 3rd
AH futures DOWN
AH oil DOWN, AH gold UP
About market, TAPE was very divided today. The jump in interest rates and expectations of Trump policies finally started picking major winners and losers. If you were a financial, industrial, or retail, your day went fairly well. If you were almost anywhere in technology, it was a very bad day. Semiconductors and software got hit hard with hardware and biotech not far behind. By the end, the NASDAQ had lost 1.36% and the down volume was heavy. This dichotomy started yesterday but really took hold today. Will it go further? Likely so. Because we are in December, this two-market dynamic could continue as portfolio managers *need* to have the right positioning for year-end statements.
My portfolio is diversified so even though many of my stocks were hit hard, I had others do well also. In the end I was -0.60% today, not bad considering four of my names were down 5+%. This brings us to the question of how to position for the rest of the year. My theory is to pick the best stocks in diversified sectors. That way if a sector gets hot, I can ride the performance of my certain name to help the overall portfolio for that time. Good stocks always find a way to rise, and a big up move always starts in the depths of a down time. However, if you have any question marks in your portfolio, now is the time to prune. The market will not look kindly on underperforming stocks through year end.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
The day of reckoning arrives. TRIL out with game changing data this weekend--it will determine whether we really have something here or not. Unfortunately, if we don't, the stock will likely be $4-$5 before we can do anything about it. Upside could be $10-$15 Monday depending on the level of efficacy.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Sold ZYNE @ 13.04
Despite good valuation comparatively to GWPH, it is in the "wrong" sector right now and hasn't corrected very much. Liquidity is fairly low in the stock as 5k share orders are nearly impossible to move around efficiently. This tells me institutions are not supporting it currently. Further details on its drug come out over the weekend which poses extra risk given how the sector is responding to that kind of data recently. I will sell now and revisit later.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your take on TRIL Let us hope TRIL will have some good news coming. I still hold some of ZYNE. I intend to keep it. Thanks for your market update and sharing your trades. Good luck.
Joseph
Hi guys,
I didn't realize how much CHK had repaired its balance sheet in recent years. It looks to be a better pick still than my SWN.
I also regret selling NEFF. It has continued to run despite questions surrounding the timing and scope of the Trump infrastructure plan. My only hope now is that it does a secondary to raise cash given its very stretched balance sheet. It would be a buy on that news/dip certainly.
Hi Joseph, good luck to you also! It will be an eventful weekend.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Added a small amount to TRIL @ 6.95
I feel strongly that the upside potential well outweighs the downside here. With ZYNE out of the portfolio, I felt I could add a bit down here. Given the straight decline from 9.50 ahead of the weekend, I feel the speculative money is almost completely out. I think this skews the risk/reward even more favorable. I have calculated the loss potential on a $2 drop and feel comfortable with that number.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Used my remaining cash to buy CHK @ 7.21
It seems the cheapest in the energy group, and I think many institutions are underweight the name given the many problems it has had over the years. This seems like a good recipe for gains.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Sold MCHP @ 61.47
Despite suffering a big loss yesterday, the stock is still not cheap. I picked up exposure to these non-smartphone semiconductors (CY also) but it didn't really pan out as expected. I'll continue to hold CY as buyout potential gives it better upside.
Added to CHK @ 7.20
After further review, this is one of my favorite stocks in the market right now. When I pare back some SWN exposure on Monday, I might add even more CHK.
Stocktrader
CLOSING POST: FRIDAY, DECEMBER 2ND, 2016
Indices closed UP 0.09% - DOWN 0.11%, very flat and quiet for a jobs Friday.
S&P 500 @ 2191.95 (+0.04%), high 2197.95, low 2188.37
RSI @ 58.26
CMF @ 0.198
Internals were:
NYSE UP Volume led by 1.21 to 1
NASDAQ UP Volume led by 1.37 to 1
NYSE Advancers led by 1.21 to 1 (no typo)
NASDAQ Advancers led by 1.05 to 1
NYSE New Highs/Lows were 89/70
NASDAQ New Highs/Lows were 109/54
VIX +0.05 to 14.12
10 yr note -0.051 to 2.390%
$USD -0.24 to 100.86
Oil +0.62 to 51.68
Gold +8.40 to 1177.80
Stocks which closed UP by 1%+: TCK CNX CHK CLF FCX X AKS STLD CC NEFF JKS SPWR LOW WLH IBP DAL UAL LUV CCL JCP RL MU INTC QCOM SWKS CRUS QRVO MCHP AMAT LRCX WDC NFLX RHT FEYE FTNT NEWR ACIA SSYS DDD ALKS XON GWPH ZYNE JUNO MACK ACAD SQ
Stocks which closed DOWN by 1%+: PXD CAT CF DOW LYB WLK OLN CSIQ TSL BAC C GS DB MET AFL LULU ULTA ELY GM F SBUX BWLD SHAK CELG SYMC PANW WDAY MDSO CIEN FNSR INFN OCLR LITE TWLO SINA YY CTRP PAY TDOC FIT TREE AMBA LBIO TRIL
AH movers: ZEN -8.5% on executive departures
About market, TAPE traded in a narrow range today. The 10-yr yield dropped back below 2.40% on a slight wage contraction in the jobs report and positioning ahead of the Italian referendum over the weekend. This pause in the massive recent rise in yields helped support many sectors that had recently been hurt even if the banks took a well-deserved pause today.
Saleem should be back Sunday afternoon with his usual outlook.
Have a great weekend everyone! :)
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
Forgot to include the portfolio!
MET - 22.2%
LYB - 10.2%
TRIL - 10.0%
FDX - 9.6%
M - 9.3%
CHK - 8.7%
SPLK - 8.6%
AKS - 7.8%
SWN - 5.7%
CY - 5.4%
cash - 2.5%
Stocktrader
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