Monday, November 12, 2007

Are we deeply OVERSOLD ????

Markets went into another tailspin today ????

There is a PE shrinkage going on.......to accomodate all the negativity that has build UP....

The logical question is ...where is the bottom ????

The bottom generally is in...when everybody is talking NEGATIVELY about stocks and markets......

The bottom is in... when every pundits is sure that market has more downside......

Jimmy the Cramer is Negative & sure market has more downside.....

Pete Najarian.....does NOT want to touch high flying techs......

Macke is sure that we have more pain to go through......

Adami is predicting another 400 points on the downside.....

Care to add any more pundits........

All these pundits are alway's RIGHT.......

I see too much "comfort level with the downside"......so we are close to the bottom...imho

Markets have gone through relentless selling for four days and mostly closing @ LOWS of the day......

I personally feel that this market is totally washed out.......

Any market supporting move will kick-start another rally...any moment......

So...what positive is happening.......

Gold is down bigtime......

Oil is down big......

US$ is rebounding BIG.....

So all in all Feds biggest issue "inflation is deflating big time"..in a hurry.....so what is BB next excuse NOT to cut fed funds immediately.....and reduce discount rate further by 50 basis...

US$ strength will bring trillions in foreign money from all over the world to invest in US asset mostly stock market.....because they will get currency appreciation & buying stocks near low.....

My portfolio got a big help from my continued short position in Canadian $..it gave me 2.4% towards my trading loss today......exact % loss I will know when my account is updated in AM..

I sold all VMW after news of ORCL competing software hit the wire.....still had to book a loss of $6.44 per share......

My portfolio is :

CMED,AAPL,FMCN,SINA & RIMM......

So how do you position in this type of market....I am repeating......go for strong stocks with strong earnings...plus they must have leadership position in their industry.......

This is not going to be a market for speculative stocks or perpetual bargain satocks.......

And as usual know the FA & TA of your stocks ...and spread around your $$ in few stocks....if you must.... buy two good quality stock and stay put.....ignore the noise......

Good luck on your due diligence.

I will post around 845 AM for a preview of futures & pre-market.

BLOG does not give buy or sell.

It is generally very dark before sunshine....

Saleem

4 comments:

Patrick said...

Saleem,

It's indeed a tough market. I appreciate your daily thoughts on this blog.

I was wondering if you can help understand how you come up with your technically strong and weak stocks every weekend.

Thanks Saleem!

jackfate said...

Saleem,
In my short trading life, this is the most rapid fall I have ever seen. I am holding AAPL, RIMM, CMED, RVBD and EDU. Based on my experience, I am waiting for the first "up" day to trim my positions but every day there seems to be blood bath on the street. What is your price target on AAPL and RIMM?

Stocks100 said...

Hi Diesel,

From this Sat on ...I will list the technical reason for weak & strong stocks.....

This way you can check those technical formations.

Hopefully we have already seen MAX pain in this run.....looking for a calm tuesday.

Thanks for appreciating my effort.

Saleem

Stocks100 said...

Hi Jack,

AAPL & RIMM should go near their recent highs...that should be the exit points.

When markets becomes "unbearable "then it swiftly moves UP...make sure you are in the strongest stocks to take advantage of snapback.

Good luck,
saleem