Everything seems to be very good for this market.....Fed supportive....TAPE strong......Momentum building up......what not to like?
Chinese GDP data may give pause .......
China has been targeting 7.5% GDP growth......but lately weakness is creeping up in Chinese economy.....
Chinese Foreign Minister made a "startling comment" in New York few days back......he said "we are going to grow GDP @ 6.5% to 7%.......this statement is a change from previous guidance of 7.5%......this implies that 2nd half Chinese GDP growth may be around 6% only.......
IF Chinese GDP is on the lower end, it may signal another sell off in Commodities ......
Ben Bernanke is testifying before House & Senate...which is after potentially weak Chinese GDP. BB may be more supportive in his testimony....thus a positive for TAPE.
Earnings season are another positive, most estimates are low low low...easy to beat & guide higher.....
Some of the sector rotation are in play these days....Gold, Oil & Ag are the next to move.......
Tech is favoured from October to January........do not be surprised IF there is profit taking after earnings in this sector......
Many technicians are starting to play catch-up as they are caught in their bearish thesis.
S&P 500 @ 1680.19......we are heading much higher to series of new highs.......reason is that we are getting strength in US economy.........it is a US growth story.......
This summer could be very interesting for all participant.
As you have noted about my predictions, it IS based on the TAPE, sometimes i can see weakness when it is not there & it comes to reality in few days. It is also important to quickly do a reset IF TAPE is turning UP.
Good luck with your stock picks & strategy.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
7 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Coincidentally, I used almost the exact wording as you: "This summer could be very interesting for all participant." versus my "It should get interesting now!". There is always much excitement around earnings season and we are both feeling it!
I think materials are ready for more gains as cost cutting and mine closures over the past year have set these guys up to really see major earnings flow-down (on the income statement) if fundamentals improve even a little. Plus, I think they'll all be reluctant to bring mines back online even if we see initial improvement signs. Add all this to heavy underweights by portfolio managers and large short interest could set up a great fundamental and money flow picture.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
YES...sometimes our wordings are even close.......
This week could be full of surprises..many heavyweight tech leaders are reporting daily...YHOO EBAY & GOOG.....
China always a wild card....
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
Doubled my exposure in KOG @ $8.54.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
China spot iron ore breached $130 today on the not-worse-than-expected GDP. $130 might be that inflection point for CLF. Even to me it just sounds a lot better than $128. Also, I read a report where foreign steel makers are decreasing exports to the US to avoid a trade war--sounds good for X.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Nice add on KOG. I'll be honest, the weakness is bothering me, but I hope today is a nice reversal bottom. I suspect crude holds above $100 which would be extremely supportive for KOG's earnings.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
KOG is in its 3rd of weakness....most of the time support is found on 3rd day.....
Let us hope that $8.45 low will not be violated.....
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
Good news on Iron Ore prices.....X is above 50 DMA.....
CLF is up nicely also.
Saleem
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