Only S&P 500 closed @ absolute high of the day.
S&P 500 @ 1692.09
RSI @ 68.24
CMF @ 0.267...highest level since May 2013
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.29 to 1 in NYSE & .68 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.06 to 1 in NYSE & .92 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 227 in NYSE & 188 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 8.93% @ 12.54...52 wk low 11.05 on March 14, 2013
Oil @ $108.05
Gold $1292.90
Canadian $ @ 96.35
Green close included KORS AUY MU
CLDX WLT CSIQ POT LEN CF
TSLA AMZN LULU CMG SU
PANW COH CRUS LRCX
FNSR SNDK QCOM
MON EGO GG
AEM MLNX
SLW FCX
Here is my portfolio weighting :
AUY 35.04%
KORS 34.96%
AMD 16.20%
MU 13.80%
Exposure 115%
Next post by 2 PM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
It was a mixed week for me with the portfolio gaining 0.27% versus the S&P's +0.71%. Big winners included KOG (+7.1%), WLT (+5.8% which includes missing another 5.9% on a bad sell/buyback), and CLF (+5.4%). Big losers included MDSO (-6.8%), MODN (-5.6%), and OMED (-5.0% from purchase). There were a number of other both winners and losers to smaller degrees. Here's the current portfolio:
Commodities: TCK WLT KOG X CLF BTU
Software: TXTR (x1.5) MODN MDSO
Consumer Discretionary: KORS (x1.5) M SODA
Biotech: CLDX OMED
Other: CMI (engines) WLK (chemicals) YHOO (internet) WLH (housing)
The moves this week were minor, trimming some KOG and WLT to buy BTU, and then selling TRLA to buy YHOO and OMED with some extra proceeds. I am extremely overweight commodities, which makes me a bit nervous and is probably unwise generally. The lack of financials exposure cost the portfolio some performance this week. After thinking more, I still like RDN and hope to find a way to repurchase it. Additionally, stocks like C/BAC and/or some regional banks are on the radar for addition.
This starts the first of three big weeks for the portfolio earnings reports. A commodity heavy week will see BTU Tuesday morning, TCK Thursday morning, and CLF Thursday night (cc Fri AM). I expect relatively poor earnings from these guys as prices were depressed in Q2, but I'm looking for good cost controls, capex cutbacks, and improved pricing outlook to drive earnings in future quarters. The reaction to earnings is the key here. Finally, MDSO reports Thursday morning and I expect another good quarter and guidance with business momentum strong.
The overall market I see in grind up mode. We have a slowly improving world economic backdrop (ignoring the upcoming Q2 GDP print <=1% as one-time). Inventories are low and cost cutting has made companies lean. Investor inflows continue to trickle in--we've seen the outflow from bond funds, but not much of that has moved to stocks yet. Although investor confidence reports high, there is still the skeptical eye of traders in how fast the market made the comeback. The $VIX has finally crashed back down. I think we're in for those very slow quiet days where the market every day moves 20-60 points higher with minor selloffs intraday that get bought up. There should be opportunity here if one is patient, but full allocation is recommended.
In summary, this week is one of "wait and see". Since my portfolio is highly overweight commodities, the reports and reactions this week could really shape the tone for weeks/months to come. I continue to look for good opportunities or special situations, and there seem to always be some of those during earnings season. I may sell off a commodity or two to help raise cash and balance the portfolio a little more.
I have an obligation every afternoon this week right during earnings call time. Fortunately, all my portfolio companies have morning conference calls, but for other companies I'll have to listen to replays or read transcripts much later at night.
Hope summer is going well for all! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Gradually you are moving UP in the right direction........
Market may pause to reset euphoria.
Good luck with your "portfolio adjustment"
Saleem
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