TAPE is showing renewed strength which cannot be ignored.
Thursday & Friday we opened weak & erased all the losses by close.
TAPE does not want to budge too far from its all time highs.....
S&P 500 high so far is 1698.78, Friday's low was 1676.03...this was a pullback of only 22.75 points or 1.34% in 4 trading days......
Majority of bad earnings are being ignored & some stocks are rewarded with "new all time highs" after bad earning.....AMZN is a classic example of this.....
Fed is meeting & Wednesday we will get their statement @ 2.15......no one should expect any surprise but a repeat of "confusing statement regarding timing of taper"...September may come into focus again & denials again & again until it actually tapers in September.
Friday is Jobs report, expectation is of 185K of jobs growth, i think we may exceed this number.
I am expecting that by end of Friday, we could be sitting well above 1700.......
This IS the strongest TAPE i have observed, does not want to correct too much but wants to go HIGHER gradually.......
@ many juncture it felt that we could go down for an extended period but we find support quickly, current support lies in 1676 area.......
It is OK to be "nervous" about this market, but it is "more important to change when support is found"
NO two market TAPE is identical....this TAPE has its own unique strength which must be recognized by all participants......
YES there has been blowups in many stocks, some of them in my portfolio which has hurt me " in lack of performance"...but there are 1000's which has gone UP substantially.
We need to be objective in our view of this market, ones own performance does not necessarily represents overall market TAPE.
I do not believe that this bull run is over, it may get new strength based on new found strength in many leaders.
SO...sit back & let your portfolio breathe & run for better gains.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
6 comments:
I like the financials & industrials. Hope everyone is having a good weekend.
Hi Victor,
Nice to see your note.
Saleem
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Stocks100 said...
Hi Stocktrader,
Nice recap of methodology & market outlook.....
For a change i am more bullish than you....
Saleem
July 28, 2013 at 10:36 AM
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Hey Saleem,
I've been thinking about your comment and don't really know where I stand. I do expect a great three days possibly taking us to ~1725 by Wednesday, but then a more sluggish end of week.
There are some negative technical divergences and momentum signals setting up in the indices, especially the Russell 2000, and I wonder how those could resolve. A spike higher and then drift back down could satisfy that, but maybe there's more to it.
I'm looking to sell into a spike to lock in some gains but hopefully limit my missed opportunity if I am wrong about a pullback.
Stocktrader
P.S. I have a sick house at the moment, but maybe later today or this week I can detail some of my worries. I struggle to see how any of them could "bring down" the market, but maybe could be enough to put us in a range for a while.
Hi Stocktrader,
When market ignores bad earnings & reward handsomely good earnings...it IS time to take notice.......
Strength begets strength.....is where i am @....
TAPE is "super strong"..as it finds support again......
Hope everything comes back to normal soon in your family.....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Bought WLT @ 11.096 (65% position). I think met coal prices have bottomed with the Q3 benchmark pricing set, and the cost cutting efforts at WLT appear to be going well based on their preannounce.
Additionally, I think one of WLT's sensible options is to hire bankers to explore a sale. It could fetch a very nice premium if a sale happens, and would likely see extremely positive price action even on just the news of hiring bankers.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
WLT @ best is a speculative story....Earning picture is extremely challenging.
Saleem
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