Markets trying to "climb WALL OF WORRY"

Markets fought very hard to stay in green today...S&P500 & Dow was successful while NASDAQ was down almost 1%.....

Techs were weaker?????

Today's close IS giving a picture of markets trying to climb wall of worry....

Markets are deeply oversold but technicians are using VIX as a crutch for their bearish stance...

Technicians are "harping that VIX has to go to @ least 30+ to make a strong bottom"

I beg to differ.....markets are washed out & looks EXHAUSTED from relentless SELLING !!!

In my portfolio :

MRVL rating 20/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $17.71 for a target of $19.15....

SOL No TA....Still trying to form a TRIPLE bottom which IS holding HIGHER lows ... $16.33 then $16.85 & today's LOW of $17.22????Down $1.07 @ $17.30 on a very LOW volume...RSI 40.38 !!

Oil went above $143.....then came down to $140+++...Is GS selling Oil above their target of $141???

Strong stocks were GSI,JRCC,NTES, FSLR,SPWR,STP,CMED...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets are GREEN????

Markets are green in every index????

Dow went down to 11288.22 @ low of the day???

Was today the RETEST of the low and we stayed ABOVE...HIGHER LOW????Could this be a START of UPTREND$$$$$

Lot of pundits are very SURE that it IS a BEAR market....which is a close of 20% below of recent HIGH......we have NOT done this YET.....so please STOP the celebration of BEAR market???

In my portfolio :

MRVL UP 42 cents

SOL Down 57 cents.....Solar stocks are very WEAK inspite of new contract news between CSIQ & LDK....SOLF also had some positive news along with TSL which announced new contract also???

@ 11.26 AM the following stocks on my watch list are GREEN:

GSI,TSO(Bottom for refiners?),TOL,VMW,CCJ,JRCC,
WYNN,MA,BIDU,SOHU,VLO, FSLR,ISRG,AMZN,GOOG(Upgrade),CMED,GS,NTES.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Solar stocks "ready to ROCK"..Showing you the MONEY !!!

Solar sector has been beaten DOWN senselessly lately.......

This IS one sector where Sales & EPS is exploding.......

Solar sector is enjoying "worldwide growth in demand"

No sector which I follow shows doubling of Sales for entire sector.....the only exception IS SOLAR......

Solar stocks will be the-biggest beneficiary of Sky high Oil prices....

Solar IS @ very early stage of acceptance worldwide......

For a highest growth sector Solar is selling @ steep-DISCOUNT to growth rate...which should correct shortly......

So..how do you play this sector.......????

It all depends on your OWN comfort level.......you can go CONCENTRATED position or you CAN go DIVERSIFIED.....no matter what you do...make sure you are OVERWEIGHT in this sector...

SOLAR Demand is so HIGH "worldwide" that most companies have done follow on secondary or convertible..as they ALL need to EXPAND their production capabilities ASAP......I am looking @ 2nd half of 08 as an OVERDRIVE growth in Sales & EPS as most companies are "ramping UP their production of Wafers/Solar Panels & installations"

So here is the PE comparison of everything Solar where there IS earnings :

SOL..... Price $18.37 12/08 EPS $1.30 PE 14.13

CSIQ....Price $40.38 12/08 EPS $1.95 PE 20.71

LDK.....Price $39.82 12/08 EPS $1.73 PE 23.02

JASO...Price $17.52 12/08 EPS .93 cents PE 18.84

SOLF...Price $18.04 12/08 EPS .95 cents PE 18.99

YGE.....Price $16.16 12/08 EPS .97 cents PE 16.66

TSL.....Price $30.71 12/08 EPS $3.26 PE 9.42

STP.....Price $36.53 12/08 EPS $1.56 PE 23.42

FSLR...Price $266.25 12/08 EPS $2.91 PE 91.49

SPWR...Price $72.71 12/08 EPS $1.65 PE 44.07

All EPS taken from MSN moneycentral.com.......

So there you have it....a CLEAR picture of how UNDERVALUED Chinese Solar companies are compared to US solar companies...who decides these valuations and on what metrics...is an unknown mystery of Wall Street......

My thesis IS that very SOON the PE gap will NARROW.....as Chinese Solar are showing ROBUST Sales & EPS growth.....soon the PE on all Chinese solar will reflect their EPS growth rate which is averaging 60%...so 60 PE on Chinese Solar is NOT out of reach....imho...It IS a question of WHEN NOT IF !!!!!

Good luck on your own FA/TA/TAPE analysis of everything Solar $$$$$$$

PS....Wall Street "never rings a bell @ BOTTOM"

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

BUY rated stocks for "Mother of all rally from DEEPLY OVERSOLD levels "

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your own FA/TA and use stop.

VLTR,VLNC,TIBX,SONE,PKTR,FSYS,ACOR,ASA,FDG,HAL,HK,
HL,HMY,OME,PDE,SLW,WX,AZK,UXG,URZ.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Next post by 10AM Sunday.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for "Mother of all rally from DEEPLY OVERSOLD levels "

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please do your own FA/TA & use stop.

ABX,CCJ,GG,ACN,HOV,COST,OMCL,KB,IRBT,RMBS,ACTS,
DO,HLF,SKM,DRQ,EPEX,CSH,TRMD.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for "Mother of all rally from DEEPLY OVERSOLD levels "

Following stocks are showing technical weakness based on various formations.Please do your own FA/TA and always use stop.

RIMM,TLM,JDSU,LMC,HD,RVBD,CLX,OPLK,WMT,
SKS,IFX,ALK,BGP,APH,CHNR,WMG.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets went DOWN AGAIN !!!

Markets are doing their thing.....going where they want to go......

These LOW levels are providing an opportune time to buy great stocks on "fire sale"

In my portfolio :

MRVL rating 5/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $17.71 for a target of $19.15...

SOL NO TA...Made "triple bottom on higher LOWS" and moved UP sharply on HIGH volume...

Strong sectors were Ag,Steel,Coal,selected Techs......

By 10AM Saturday ..I will list technically weak/strong/buy rated stocks....

BLOG does NOT give BUY or SELL.

Saleem

Market goes UP & Markets go DOWN...it is "stock selections that matters"

Markets are doing what they need to do.......

The question IS.......

Are you taking ADVANTAGE of the Low Low Low prices on many good stocks.....

Are we forgetting "BUY low ...so you CAN sell HIGHER !!!!

Best buys are generally there when sentiments IS lousy ????

Check out the forward PE on quality stocks.....they are looking VERY good......

Why...forward PE ?

Because from July you always look to next year projections...which MAY be very CONSERVATIVE......

So....what do you think the RISK/REWARD ratio is for good stocks with great earning momentum.......EXACTLY !!!!

In my portfolio :

MRVL Down 7 cents

SOL UP 23 cents...Looks like SOL made a TRIPLE bottom in $16 area today...with Higher low of $16.85 higher from $16.33 previous LOW......RSI is also "turning UP @40"

@11.31 AM the following stocks are green:

ICO,GSI,DRYS,ABX,GG,AUY,KGC,V,POT,
CCJ,FWLT,CMED,X.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow closed @ the lowest point in 52 weeks???

Dow was punished till the bell rang....closing @ absolute LOW of the day...fractions included???

Just about every sector was in the RED........except Gold......

In a market like this ...I try to concentrate on the best idea even when it may be just one or two...No need to have too many stocks in markets like this......

In my portfolio :

Sold RIO & booked a loss of $1.11 per share....wanted to buy MORE SOL as it was being punished big time.....

Added 40% more SOL today...cost went down to $22.16 !!!!

Portfolio is MRVL & SOL......

$ allocation is 80% SOL & 20% MRVL.....

It will be interesting to see...how this strategy works out in this "unpredictable market"

Friday MAY bring some relief !!!!

Why do I think that????

Because...everybody is "so scared" with this market...that an "oversold bounce is imminent"

Please manage your risk based on your OWN comfort level.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Goldman Sachs...where is the bottom in markets???

GS today came up with serious downgrades in financials like C & MER....which tanked the markets and took all support with it.......

GM is hitting 55 year low......

OPEC president predicting $170 oil.....

Gold UP $32......

Oil UP $3.46

So.....the question IS...where IS the bottom in markets.....52 week low in Dow IS 11508.70...we are @ a kissing distance only.....then what????

We have already hit 11585.15 on the Dow so far????

Unless financials turn UP...markets will not find support.....

In my portfolio :

Bought RIO @ open my cost $36.53

Added 20% SOL..cost went down to $22.89

My portfolio is RIO,MRVL,SOL.....

MRVL down 99 cents

RIO down 94 cents

SOL down $1.25....Why do I get the feeling that SOL will find support TODAY...we shall see !!!

Except for Gold and some AG...most stocks are deep in the RED......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

RIMM miss by 1 cents & guides EPS lower by 3 cents...

RIMM ER was a "major disappointment on EPS front"

RIMM guidance for Q2 EPS was also LOWER.......87 cents vs 90 cents expectations.....

Sold all my shares AH and booked a loss of $4 per share......

My portfolio is MRVL & SOL....

MRVL rating 30/30 "confirmed breakout" target $19.08

SOL No TA.....SOL down 58 cents on below average volume went as low as $18.85.....was that a double bottom????closed @ $19.07

Strong sectors were Techs,Bulk shipping,Builders,retailers,Internet.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq & S&P 500 showing strength so far....

Markets are showing life after being deeply oversold.....

Oil is down almost $5...

Gold is down $5....

Fed speak @ 2.15 will be bullish for stocks, US$ & bearish for Oil......

In my portfolio :

MRVL UP 65 cents

SOL UP 10 cents

RIMM down $1.92......Same old short stories being planted like RIMM valuation is Sky high,Consumers will NOT buy Blackberry,BOLD will be delayed.....heard all this for last 2 years around ER time....has NOT come to fruition?????RIMM reports AH expecting a BEAT & guide Higher !!!

@11.28 AM the following stocks are green :

AAPL,CMED,JNPR,WFR,V,MA,VMW,C,TKC,CTRN,
ICE,NDAQ(upgraded),WYNN,LVS,BIDU,WYN,SOHU,
NYX,VLO,ISRG,XLF,SNE,AMZN,DRYS,GOOG.BRCM,
SNDK,PIR(buyout withdrawn),TSO,TOL,QLD,DUG,GS,
FMCN,IFN,HPQ,SINA.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow closed @ 11807.43 after dipping to 11725.52 !!

Dow made an honourable close today after dipping to 11725.52.....

Lot of negative news were in play today so the close was half decent....

Internals were very weak over 2 to 1 on the downside....

In my portfolio :

MRVL rating 10/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $17.68 for a target of $19.05

RIMM rating 15/70 target $157.44....reports AH wed expecting a BEAT & guide UP...

SOL No TA.....completed secondary...sold off with most solar.....typical tape after completion of secondary...when retail start second guessing about who is shorting among buyer of secondary...went as low as $18.83 on panic retail selling..closed @ $19.65 below 50 DMA of $20.50....I do expect a strong rebound shortly !!!!

Strong sectors were Retailers,financials,Builders,Refiners & selected Technology.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets have "drawn a line in Sand for Dow @ 11725.52"

Markets have discounted "mother of all issues today".....you name it market have discounted it today...Sky High Oil done,Low US$ done,Lowest consumer confidence done,High inflation done,threat of attack on Iran done....

So...the word is DISCOUNTING done,done & done.....I think so !!!

So...Dow low today of 11725.52 is "where the BUCK STOPS"......

Very interesting tape today.....some stocks showing that they want to run higher after finding support.....AAPL,CTRP,LULU,GS,C,LDK,TOL,DUG,FMCN,NYX,NVDA,
JNPR...to name a few !!!

In my portfolio :

MRVL down 19 cents

SOL down $1.03

RIMM down $2.37

@11.21 AM the following stocks are green :

AAPL,CTRP,JNPR,LDK,C,CCJ,NYX,NMX,ABX,GSI,FMCN,
LRCX,DUG.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

SOL gets $187 million from Secondary..oversubscribed to the MAX !!!!

SOL completed its secondary offering last night which was heavily oversubscribed.After commission SOL received $187 million...$17 million more than needed by SOL.....

Total of 9,549,940 new SOL shares were issued.....while another 800,060 shares were sold by insiders for a total of 10,350,000......

SOL can now concentrate on $70 million expansion of existing manufacturing facility which will benefit 08 results......

Another $100 million will go on completing another manufacturing facility which will benefit 09 results....

SOL stock price should move HIGHER now that the uncertainty of secondary is done & over with as per their Form 6-K filed with SEC on June 24th Today.

All Insiders have agreed NOT to sell any shares for another 90 days...thus extending their july lockup from original IPO to Sep 24th ,2008.....thus no selling pressure post IPO lockup expiry!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

S&P 500 low 1315.31 closed @ 1318......

S&P 500 traded in a very narrow range of 8.47 points from its low to high today.

Oil kept going UP closing higher by almost $2 around $137...

Gold was down almost $19

Consumption of Oil is higher than production...so prices are going UP & UP...a simple Economics 101 issue of Supply Vs Demand.....

I do NOT see any CONCRETE steps taken by US or any government worldwide to CURB consumption....lot of talk NO ACTION????

In my portfolio :

MRVL rating 25/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $ 17.87 for a target of $19.24

RIMM rating 10/45 rated for a "breakout" @ $148.30 for a target of $163.90..RBC Mike Abramsky raised RIMM target to $165 on prediction of a solid Q1 results......

SOL No TA...Secondary to close tonight......

Strong sectors were Oil,Gas,Steel,Ag.......

Thanks to many comments regarding great ideas to benefit from the above sectors.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets "stuck in support range"?? Financials still A DRAG ...

Markets are stuck in the mud and spinning wheels.....going nowhere fast???

Financials are hitting multi year LOWS????

Markets will NOT be able to stage any meaningful rally unless financials turn around...

So...we all WAIT for financials to "hit bottom"

In my portfolio :

MRVL UP 21 cents

SOL UP 43 cents

RIMM Down 53 cents

@ 11.32 AM the following are green :

AGU,CSIQ,SOLF,CMED,LDK,CCJ,JRCC,SOHU,VLO,
ABX,SPWR,FSLR(target increased),FWLT,NCTY,
X(new high).

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

How "deeply oversold" markets are???

Everyone knows that markets are deeply oversold @ Friday's close.....& PESSIMISM is very HIGH...a CONTRARY indicator!!!!

Here are the numbers to keep in mind:

Dow 52 week low........... 11508.70
Friday's close ................11842.69
points from low................333.99
% from low.........................2.9%

NASDAQ 52 week low......2155.42
Friday's close...............2406.09
Points from low..............250.67
% from low.....................11.6%

S&P 500 52 week low......1256.98
Friday's close...............1317.93
Points from low...............60.95
% from low......................4.8%

It IS always interesting to analyze where the relative strength IS.....

Weakest index is DOW...followed by S&P 500

Relative strength IS being shown by NASDAQ...which IS 11.6% higher from 52 week low...in other words if you would have invested $100,000 in the markets...you would have been WISE to put in NASDAQ...which IS DOWN the-least......

The question IS...how one needs to view the "current state of the markets"......most of US know that based on above statistics......it IS a down trending market ...based on last 52 weeks performance????

Markets are also telling US that last whole year investment WAS a losing proposition......

BUT.......if you believe in $ cost averaging then this IS the best year to do that.....as your cost of purchase SHOULD be coming down.....to POSITION for FUTURE GAINS !!!!!

BUT....generally people are EUPHORIC near HIGHS and put serious money to work...but take money OUT when markets are trending DOWN?????

Opposite SHOULD be done to make serious money "Buy LOW SELL HIGH" should be the MANTRA.......

On an extended period markets do go UP and trend HIGHER.......based on historical facts !!!

But the problem IS that NASDAQ hit 5000+ in 2000.......and it has been downhill for the last 8.6 years...a long time of downtrend line for this index...while S&P 500 & Dow did make new highs...

So the real stat are mixed for the 3 index ?????

So it BOILS down to stock selections........where MANY stocks have made new all time highs...

SO......if you would have done HOMEWORK and followed the TAPE.....you would have spotted AG,STEEL,OIL,GAS,SOLAR & select Technology stocks ...who kept making NEW all time highs....

It is NOT possible to spot all winners because of our OWN BIAS...but should have spotted WINNERS in your own area of "expertise"

I am "tech driven in terms of knowledge & TAPE"......so my top winner has been RIMM for the last two years.....where most of my GAIN came from......

So...it IS time to FOCUS on what you know best about the area of your expertise.....and FIND stocks which are doing well & will continue to do well......finding 3 best ideas is not difficult in 3 different emerging sectors.......but it REQUIRES knowing FA/TA......I tend to go 70% FA & 30% TA.......

Here is my $ weighting as of Friday's close :

MRVL.... 14.1%

SOL .......41.4%

RIMM......44.5%

Sometimes "over-diversification" IS a sign of NOT knowing enough about companies you have invested IN......or following a FAD trumpeted by some GURU !!!

Jim Rogers ...the famous trader believes in concentrated position if one has done their HOMEWORK......he believes that diversification IS a concept invented by brokers to generate commissions for themselves NOT to increase your returns????.....something to THINK about in Sunday's analysis !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Buy rated stocks for "DEEPLY OVERSOLD RALLY "

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your own FA/TA and use stop loss targets.

ENCY,PKTR,RIGL,SOLD,STAA,VPHM,SUPX,HI,SE,SNS,WU,
CHQ,SIM.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Next post by 10 AM Sunday.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for "DEEPLY OVERSOLD RALLY "

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please do your own FA/TA and use stop loss targets.

SDTH,GSS,KGC,LIHR,WFR,NILE,XTO,HL,SNP,DVN,
MEOH,FXEN,AMT,FEIC,BEBE,VNUS.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for "DEEPLY OVERSOLD RALLY "

Following stocks are showing technical weakness based on various formations.Please do your own FA/TA and use stop loss targets.

AMD,HNP.WMG,HSY,OCR,CLMS,CSCO,LOGI,LXK,
MSTR,USU,TKC,DCM,SOHU,NTCT,MRO,MTW,TEL.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow closed @ 11842.69 ?????

Markets are "near" 52 week LOWS ????

All indices are taking it "on the chin"???

Oil "is the wild card"

Saudi Arabia's sponsored meeting of producers & consumers this Sunday can provide the boost which world economy "needs"...then stocks will follow on the upside !!!!

In my portfolio :

MRVL rating 0/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $17.75 for a target of $19.10

RIMM rating 25/45 rated for a "breakout" @ $148.27 for a target of $164

SOL No TA....First day of pullback @ close......staying well ABOVE 50 DMA.....

Strong stocks were IPI,LULU,DUG,QID,SDS,DXD,X.....

By 10 AM Saturday I will list technically weak/strong /buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow tanked to 11876.07....trying a comeback!!!

Market support is being tested in quadruple witching selloff......

Dow ,S&P 500 & NASDAQ all trading NEAR 52 week low....

Today "seems like capitulation"?????

Oil went as high as almost $5 UP......

Gold is UP......

US$ is UP....

In my portfolio :

Added 10% more RIMM my 3rd add-on in 3 day's...My cost went UP to $135.49...

MRVL down 25 cents

SOL down 96 cents

RIMM down $2.95

@ 12.08 following are green :

POT,JRCC,X,AUY,ABX,LULU,SDS,QID,DXD......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS...Sorry for the delay in posting as a close friend called to inquire about my mother's health.

Saleem

Dow closed @ 12063.09 after dipping twice below 12,000 !!!

Dow dipped TWICE below 12,000 before rebounding each time to close above......

Will it test the support below 12,000 AGAIN ????

Markets are difficult these days ...unless you are in right sector and in right stock in that sector...

Only trading strategy which works these days IS to book profit..or watch it turn into LOSS???

If you are lucky enough to find the "right stock...then conviction CAN get you the big GAINS"

In my portfolio :

MRVL rating 0/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $17.70 for a target of $19.04

RIMM rating 65/30 "breakout confirmed" target $162.10

SOL No TA....went to $23.28 after pulling back...sitting comfortably WAY ABOVE 50 DMA of $20.03....traded more than 5 million shares !!!!

Other strong stocks were AAPL,BRCM,QLD,DUG,GS,BIDU,ISRG,NYX,ICE,
STP,GRMN,WFR,X......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Dow testing support of 12,000...will it hold ???

Dow went down to 11,978.33 as the low point on Dow this AM...so far....

The question IS....are we done with correction or NOT???

Indices are @ the lowest point in 3 months???

Dow 52 week LOW is 11508.70......So we are about 470 points from hitting NEW LOW??

Markets are trying to "discount all economic issues facing US & the world"

Economic issues are many like High Oil,Low US$....to name a few ...plus new effect of rising interest rates...which will tank housing across the Globe.......

Everything IS discounted by markets sooner or later...this time around it IS taking LONGER???

Money IS being made in Ag,Steel,Coal,Oil,Gas....plus select Solar & Techs !!!!

Smart investors/traders recognise this and adjust quickly !!!!

In my portfolio :

Have been adding RIMM two days in a row ..my cost went UP to $134.84

Also added MRVL two days ago..my cost went UP to $16.55....

My portfolio remained MRVL,SOL & RIMM.......

MRVL UP 62 cents

SOL UP 48 cents.....They are pricing Secondary @ $20.50 which will close within few days...this IS much higher price than what some daytraders/hedge funds were positioned for..thus a short covering rally going on for 3 days...

RIMM UP $1.67 went to all-time HIGH and staying above old highs.....ER is on 25th AH ..expecting a BEAT & guide HIGHER....

@11.26 AM the following are green :

CMED ( had a beat on Q4 ER & guiding higher Rev for 3/09),WFR,LDK,
CTRN,ICE,JRCC(new HIGH),ABX,DRYS,BRCM,STP,X(new HIGH).

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS...I was able to bring mother back to Houston home ...she has made miraculous progress thanks to all of you for your best wishes & prayers.She was on Respirator 3 times and made it back in good spirit.She is being taken care by my sister , brother plus she is getting visit from Nurse & Physiotherapist daily.

Doctors & ICU staff were very hospitable to me ...they appreciated a "formal thank you card & chocolates for the entire ICU team"

Saleem

S&P 500 closed @ 1358.44.....OVERSOLD????

S&P 500 went to 1351.56 but closed @ 1358.44......

Are we deeply OVERSOLD on Wall Street ????

Are we OVERSOLD in Solar stocks???

Are we OVERSOLD in Techs????

Are we OVERBOUGHT in Ag,Oil,Coal,Steel????

Next few days MAY give us the answer to the above trading questions......

When I analyze any sector......I personally ask a basic question???

What is the RISK/REWARD ratio in any sector......

Markets have been TOUGH lately......so it is more CRITICAL to buy stocks where risk/reward ratio is very compelling.....

Do NOT forget to LOCK GAINS whenever you see it...JUST TAKE IT !!!!

My portfolio remains the same RIMM,SOL & MRVL......

I doubled my position in MRVL today cost went down to $16.48...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS.....I am leaving for Houston 11 AM wed for a week.......to see my mother....who has made good progress in the last 24 hours...thanks to all well wishers.

I will TRY to update BLOG...IF I can access a reasonable computer.....otherwise my next BLOG posting will be Thursday 11.30AM on June 19th......

In the meantime wishing all of you "Profitable trading/investing"

Saleem

Nasdaq & S&P 500 showing weakness...Dow Green !!!

NASDAQ & S&P 500 showing continued weakness...while Dow is struggling with GREEN....

TXN ongoing warnings on any update is taking a toll on all techs......

AAPL IS bucking the trend ...which should help techs by close ...I hope...

Solar is taking a pounding AGAIN...only CSIQ behaving better.....

Oil is down barely for NOW....

US$ is strong!!!

Gold is taking a pounding down $24.60

In my portfolio :

RIMM down $1.07

SOL down $1.16

MRVL down 73 cents


@11.57 AM the following are green :

AAPL,C,CTRN,NMX,AMZN,DUG,GS.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Stocks finished on a decent note......

Stocks were struggling whole day...but closed trending UP......

Oil pulled back almost $4.....

Solar stocks got clobbered......

Most solar stocks are struggling with either 50 DMA or 200 DMA......

This sharp solar pullback was across the board......Have they tested their SUPPORT already???

In my portfolio :

Sold BRCM & booked a loss of 69 cents per share.....

Added 50% more SOL...my cost went down to $23.76..now my largest position !!!!

My portfolio is MRVL,RIMM,SOL......

MRVL rating 0/30 target $18.60

RIMM rating 70/90 target $153.33

SOL No TA....SOL went near 50 DMA of $18.79 to $19.02..but closed @ $20.56 closing $1.56 higher than Low of the day.......a very good technical action !!!!!

Stong sectors were Oil,Gas,Coal & selected Techs......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq is WEAK so far......

Markets are trying to stage a technical bounce....but NASDAQ is WEAK

Oil is down

Gold is UP

US$ is UP

OPEC is saying fundamentals justifies only $80 OIL...rest is all speculation????

In my portfolio :

Sold SNDK...booked a loss of $1.41 per share

Bought MRVL my cost $16.74

My portfolio is BRCM,MRVL,RIMM,SOL

BRCM UP 7 cents

MRVL down 34 cents..I am down 4 cents

RIMM down $1.36

SOL down $1.80....double bottom breakdown on high volume????


@12.14 noon the following are green :

POT,AGU,IPI,CCJ,JRCC,SOHU,FWLT,X,CMED.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Why DOW tanked 400 points on Friday????

Markets were well on their merry way to take out the resistance on Thursday.....

Friday morning we got many negative news :

Unemployment rate shot UP to 5.5%...biggest jump in many decade......

Israel prime minister to be issued a "rare announced plan to attack Iran nuclear facilities"

Markets were trying to digest 5.5% unemployment which was a reflection of many youth trying to get a summer job..but they have NOT landed the job yet....this influx of youth to job market reflect "nervousness about economy & realism that things are NOT that well in US households"

Israel's plan of attack played right into the hands of Morgan Stanley who wanted $150 per barrel OIL by July 4...Goldman Sachs dream number of $141 was almost touched on Friday?

Is GS going to announce $160 Barrel by July 4th?????

The frenzied activity in OIL pits is a clear reflection of making quick billions by GS & MS.....it IS all about making money with speculative bets......

$140 OIL is NOT a good news to consumers around the world...who are being crushed with highest imaginable price of gasoline,heating,cooling,food items & every product which has been affected by high energy cost...which includes just about every item imaginable.....

So what is Wall Street & world markets do ...they PLUNGE to digest this NEW FRIDAY'S reality......

G8 meeting in Japan has PLEDGED to invest in new technology & conservation......also G8 is asking producers to increase production.....to bring relief to worldwide consumers.....

US is pushing for "aggressive investment"in alternate/renewable energy solutions...this IS a major change for US federal initiative....as only few states like CA are on board for alternative energy solutions......

This IS very good news for Solar energy which IS renewable and IS available today for worldwide use........

Markets will try to stabilize on Monday as worldwide initiatives to contain $140 oil...is more than evident in G8 manifesto in Japan which concluded on Sunday Japan time......

So G8 is focused on TCHNOLOGY for alternate/RENEWABLE energy solutions through AGGRESSIVE means.....which entails Government support/subsidy/tax credits/grants & legislation's to enforce/encourage........

Markets will respond to G8 & attitude change in G8.......

The era of cheap oil is over.....but do expect a sharper pullback for OIL next week...$120 area is where OIL will settle........

So Friday provided me with another opportunity to make changes in my portfolio...as I always have stocks & price range in mind for optimization of $ & GAINS !!!!

Here is my $ allocation as of Friday's close :

BRCM 13.1%

RIMM 42.5%

SOL 31.2%

SNDK 13.2%

Hope you are positioned in strong stocks....i personally believe that Techs & Solar are positioned to move the-most in next 12 months......we are entering a major awareness of Solar & strong 2nd half of TECHS which has already started since June...APPL/RIMM launch of 3G phones will be a BIG BOOST to many tech companies like BRCM,SNDK,MRVL & many more as there IS a shift towards more usage of Flash Memory & GPS enabled 3G phones......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

BUY rated stocks for "HIGH Oil price IMPACT on world economy "

Following stocks are flashing buy signal.Please do your own TA/FA and use stop.

NCOC,TRAD,SWSI,CHK,CNQ,HAL,OII,PKD,TRA,VOD,WMB,
NXY,CA,ANV,EGO,NGS,USO,ABX,ECA,IAG.

Next post Sunday by 10 AM.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically STRONG stocks for "HIGH Oil price IMPACT on world economy "

Following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please do your own TA/FA and use stop.

POT,AGU,GG,MTW,CCC,NT,CTRN,FLWS,POZN,CEF,
AMLN.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Technically WEAK stocks for "HIGH Oil price IMPACT on world economy "

Following stocks are showing technical weakness based on various formations.Please do your own TA/FA & use stop.

LULU,WYNN,SKS,ARRY,FDRY,LIZ,FMCN,GOOG,ADSK,
BX,DPZ,RTEC,XRT,LLL,CETV,HCBK.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

OIL in "blowoff stage"..sank S&P 500 to 1360.68 below support ???

Oil is behaving like "Internet stocks before major collapse"

$11 move UP in single day for Oil is all time biggest move????

Morgan Stanley predicting Oil @ $150 by July 4......a nice "independence" day gift to American motorist.....who are totally"dependent" on oil for most chores & existence......

Israel Prime minister to be.... promised to take out Iran nuclear facility......also added to many excuses for taking Oil UP on a daily basis....I guess Nigerian attacks on oil pipeline were not doing the job...it was only spiking oil about $2 to $3 per barrel...too slow for GS/MS.....

In my portfolio :

Sold AAPL & booked a gain of $6.66 per share.....markets were becoming too irrational to leave any profit on the table.....Always believe in RETHINKING depending on market conditions.....

Bought BRCM my cost $27.65

Bought SNDK my cost $27.89

Bought more SOL 2nd purchase of the day cost went down to $25.77

My portfolio is BRCM,RIMM,SOL & SNDK......

BRCM rating 65/70 target $29.90

RIMM rating 70/100 target $152.99

SNDK rating 35/100 target $32.61

SOL No TA...too new ..SOL went UP to $25.96 & pulled back for a loss with the market & sector slump......

TSL took it on the chin down $4.63 as margins are under pressure......

By 10AM Saturday ..I will post a list of technically weak/strong & buy rated stocks.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sky high oil taking a huge toll on markets....Dow down almost 300...

Oil UP almost $7 is taking the markets down to lower end of support.......

This HUGE RUNUP in oil cannot go unnoticed as it affects everybody economy/business/consumers.......

In my portfolio :

Added 20% more SOL...my cost went down to $25.97

AAPL down $1.85

SOL down 35 cents

RIMM down $2.97

@11.48 the following are green :

SOLF,CSIQ,LDK,WFR,POT,AUY,ABX,SPWR,FSLR,
STP,CIEN,QID,DXD,SDS......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

TSL beat by 3 cents...facing margin pressure....

TSL beats on both top & bottom line.....

Sales $120.7 million vs consensus of$116.93

EPS 51 cents vs consensus of 48 cents....

Margins are under pressure 25.8% in Q1 vs 27.2% in Q4

Guiding Margins LOWER for rest of 2008 to 23 to 25 %

Sales projected for 2008 $770 to $808 million vs consensus of $756.4

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Are we ready to go through resistance ???

Markets had a very convincing rally today and closed very strong...

S&P 500 closed @ 1404.05...absolute HIGHEST point of the day !!!!

There is a very good chance that we go higher on Friday by close !!!!

Solar,Tech,Ag,Oil even Gold stocks were UP......an ominous sign that THINGS ARE LOOKING UP $$$$$

ABK & MBI got downgraded in credit rating & Oil went sky high....still markets kept going UP & UP !!!

In my portfolio :

AAPL rating 45/70 target $204.29.....3G iphone coming on Monday...Steve Jobs ready to steal the ishow from everyone.......

RIMM rating 70/90 target $151.13......Citi analyst recommending adding or initiating new position in RIMM due to recent weakness on account of 3G iphone hoopla from June 9 to 13th...

SOL No TA.....looks like SOL made a triple bottom yesterday on low volume... on higher lows $22.87..$22.90..$22.95.....looks good going forward !!!!

Strong stocks were many today as MOST sector participated !!!!

TSL reports before open....good earning will propel all solar Higher !!!!

AH FMCN reported loss & cutting forecast for 2008...down $4 or 11%......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets IGNORING negative talks by 2 Fed voting Governor's !!!

Two Fed governors have spoken out negatively in last hour about current Fed policies & higher credit risk being taken .....This is highly unusual to see the dissent against Fed policy by voting members......Oh well....they must have a book coming shortly & wants to go on "lucrative speaker's circuit"......

Market's are showing very good tape so far !!!!

NASDAQ Is the strongest index AGAIN !!!!!

In my portfolio :

AAPL UP $2.82

SOL UP $1.15

RIMM UP $3.17

@ 11.19 AM the following are green:

TSL(reports before open friday),CSIQ,SOLF,BRCM,NVDA(upgrade by GS),
VMW,POT,CTRN,ICE,WYNN,MA,BIDU,LVS,NMX,SPWR,FSLR(upgrade by DS),
ISRG,AMZN,DRYS,GOOG,QLD,GS,X,HPQ.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Jobless & ADP data points to an improving economy...Stock markets READY to Reflect that improvement $$$

ADP data & Jobless claims are pointing to an ONGOING improvement in economy...

Stock markets will start to LEAD in taking the index HIGHER ....

Most Techs & Solar are HIGHER in pre-market.....

Look for a very good day in markets today...

Short covering will take the markets substantially HIGHER $$$$

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Nasdaq stayed in GREEN whole day !!!

Techs were strong whole day & finished in GREEN !!!!

S&P 500 stayed above support......

Oil took a major tumble to $122 area....$120 is MAJOR support area.....

US$ getting stronger by the minute.....

Solar stocks were beaten down on TWO analyst negative notes...One highlighting the virtue of thin-film and other highlighting Spain potential reduction in subsidy like Germany....Ironically thin-film FSLR was down $14.44 or 5.64% among the worst....

Solar stocks were also down with Oil as a factor.......

In my portfolio :

Added 25% SOL ....my cost went down to $26.31

AAPL rating 60/85 target $203.50

RIMM rating 65/85 target $149.11

SOL No TA.....SOL retested the low of Monday which was $22.90 today's low $22.95....

Strong stocks were BIDU,ISRG,GS,GOOG,BRCM,QLD,GRMN,VMW,SOHU...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets moving UP....Oil down AGAIN !!!

Markets are showing sign of life after testing support in S&P 500...

All the economic reports showing sign of life in economy & wage inflation moderating !!!

OIL is down

US$ is UP......Ben magic is working 3 days in a row !!!

Techs are the strongest sector so far......

Solar is trying to stay NEAR unchanged levels.....mostly RED !!!!

In my portfolio :

AAPL UP 98 cents

SOL down 40 cents

RIMM UP $2.45

@ 11.44 AM the following are green :

TSL(reports friday before open),BRCM,JNPR,VMW,CTRN,
YHOO (renewed talks with MSFT),IGT,WYNN,BIDU,WYN,
LVS,SOHU,ISRG,SNE,AMZN,DRYS,GOOG,GRMN,AKAM,SINA,
X,NVTL.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets trading in narrow range 1370-1400 in S&P 500???

Markets are trading in a very narrow range of S&P 500 ..1370 to 1400 back & forth???

News on Lehman & Wachovia have been negative lately...impacting financials.....

Markets will NOT rally unless financials participate......

Markets made an effort of rallying into close ......

In my portfolio :

AAPL rating 35/90 target $206.11

RIMM rating 45/85 target $149.25

SOL No TA.....SOL showed relative strength by closing UP.....

Strong stocks were POT,AGU,MOS,FSLR,TSL,BIDU,V,DUG,X,
NYX,GRMN,SOHU......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets in GREEN !!!!

Markets are showing "turnaround Tuesday" tape.....

Oil is down...

Gold is down...

US$ is UP....

Bernanke knows that his real mandate of controlling inflation involves US$ to be strong...so all commodities like OIL can go down as they are priced in US$......Bernanke is articulating that in order for US$ to be strong interest rates cannot go down.......this hint will attract capital flow into US$ based economy where US$ will be heading higher ...so double gain for foreign investors....

In my portfolio :

AAPL UP $1.50

RIMM down 82 cents..GS raised the target on RIMM to $163..but wants to buy shares cheap..so it is addng cautionary note that RIMM may guide Aug Q lower than consensus....which I totally disagree as they are releasing their 3G phone BOLD in that Q...which will boost sales in that Q further !!!!

SOL UP 71 cents.....tape looking very strong when OIL is down !!!!

@ 11.35 AM the following are green :

POT,AGU,SNDK,V,VMW,CCJ,BIDU,SOHU,NYX,FSLR,AMZN,GOOG,
TSL,QLD,TSO,X......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets improved @ close...Good Technical Action !!!

S&P 500 went near SUPPORT to 1377.79 & rallied UP to 1385.67.......This market has lot of buyers who step in whenever it comes close to SUPPORT...thus ensuring a better close!!!!

Tuesday could be "turnaround day".......

In my portfolio :

AAPL rating 30/85 target $203.42

RIMM rating 1585 target $149.30

SOL No TA......SOL tape was very impressive today as its volume was barely higher than yesterday...so NO selling/volume on secondary offering...Closed HIGHER than OPEN price...very strong technical indicator.....MS downgraded SOL to underweight(SELL)..still NO volume & closing better than AH yesterday.....a sure sign of better TAPE to come......

AH LULU BEAT big time on Sales....BUT EPS was in-line...also guiding 2 cents LOWER EPS for Q2.....Down almost $4 AH.... down 11.2%.....

SEED also shedding 12% or 82 cents AH on another losing Q...BUT promising EPS gain for FY 9/08......

Strong stocks were CSIQ,MA,TSO,VLO,GRMN......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Markets sinking on Technical resistance of 1400 to 1405 on S&P 500 ???

Markets are being pounded based on technical resistance on S&P 500...where 1400 to 1405 was a major resistance...& it IS proving to be one today.....

Lot of institutions & hedge funds trade on TA.....so ....they take it UP from SUPPORT & bring it DOWN @ RESISTANCE......SEE...they control the market with their Billion $ bets.......

Markets were down when OIL was down ..& now OIL is UP and markets are in DEEP RED....

In my portfolio :

AAPL down $3.69

RIMM down $2.85

SOL down $1.55.....behaving much better than my expectations,Went down to $22.90 in reg hrs..in pre-market went down to $22.60 !!!

@ 1.15 PM the following are green :

CSIQ (new contract),TSO(upgraded),YGE(upgraded),POT,
JRCC,MA,VLO,SNE,FWLT,LULU(reports AH..expect a BEAT),
X,QID,SDS....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS...Had trouble posting due to Google website issues......

PS...Mother asked me to THANK all well wishers!!!!

Saleem

SELL in MAY & GO away...WILL it WORK ????

There is a popular myth in wall street that "sell in May & go away"...works all the time???

In wall street no myth is ever accurate.....it is selective truth we are dealing with....

Many strong stocks have "multi year RUNUP".....check AAPL,RIMM,POT...they are going UP & UP for many years they have DOUBLED in past two years MINIMUM..... RIMM & POT actually have QUADRUPLED...RIMM is my single best idea in the last TWO years......

Both AAPL & RIMM are poised to double from here AGAIN !!!!!

So if you sold in May and have gone fishing...then you will NOT catch AAPL,RIMM or Solar $$$$..

So...what looks good for June to December...I say Tech,Solar will be in the front line of rapid gain....

For bargain hunters Home builders,retail & refiners...will "show you the MONEY"

Last year darlings will take a well deserved REST....as all the good news are in the price already...

So .....as you know i am positioned in RIMM,AAPL & SOL & as of Friday my $ weighting is :

AAPL 27.4%

RIMM 52.5%

SOL 20.1%

You MAY ask why such a concentrated position in 3 stocks only?

Because ......based on their rapid Sales & EPS growth they are all set to DOUBLE ...so why mess around with IFFY ideas ...if one has CONVICTION in 3 best stocks.......

..............................SOL .............AAPL..........RIMM

Sales 12/08...............$575.36M..........$32.68B....$10.31B

Sales 12/09...............$874.30M...........$39.42B...$13.90B

Sales Growth rate.....+52%.................+20.6%.....+34.7%

EPS 12/08.................$1.26..................$5.22..........$3.86

EPS 12/09.................$2.00..................$6.34..........$5.24

EPS Growth Rate....+58.7%................+21.4%.......35.7%

Stock Price Target....$40....................$220...........$200

Current stock price $25.08................$188.75.....$138.87

Potential gain...........+59.8%................+16.5%......+44%

Not a bad picture for Buy in May and WAIT for the GAIN !!!

SOL secondary offer to sell additional 8.15 Million shares plus over allotment of another 1.35 million shares equals a total offering of additional 9.50 million shares which IS a dilution of 16%...

The purpose of this offering is to use $70 million in one plant Expansion+ Equipments & $100 million in another plant construction & equipment...which will BOOST SOL Sales & EPS in 2008 & 2009 .....BIG TIME.....the rest of the money is to be used for general corporate purpose......

SOL has NOT priced its secondary offering YET.....I expect it to be priced @ $22.50...so SOL will get $22.50 X9.50 million shares =$213.75 million....after all cost/expense SOL will end UP with $210 million $ for expansion...& a major boost to Balance Sheet.....where $210 million will earn interest also......

As SOL is NOT doing convertible...there is NO interest cost and there is NO provision to give shares for Shorting to buyers...generally there is a complete restriction of sales for up to 6 months......

I do expect shares to DROP to $22.50 area and then recover @ close near $23...so a drop of $2 or 7.9% IS NORM.......

SOL will start recovering when the pricing of 9.50 million is announced...which could be as early as Tuesday......until then SOL will be blocked around $23.50 area......

So....based on above scenario.....one should be positioned to buy more SOL on weakness !!!!

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

PS....mother is recovering fast thanks to all well wishers....she spoke last night around 8.30 PM and was sitting comfortably in chair.....only minor discomfort in her surgery area.

Saleem