Markets are stuck in the mud and spinning wheels.....going nowhere fast???
Financials are hitting multi year LOWS????
Markets will NOT be able to stage any meaningful rally unless financials turn around...
So...we all WAIT for financials to "hit bottom"
In my portfolio :
MRVL UP 21 cents
SOL UP 43 cents
RIMM Down 53 cents
@ 11.32 AM the following are green :
AGU,CSIQ,SOLF,CMED,LDK,CCJ,JRCC,SOHU,VLO,
ABX,SPWR,FSLR(target increased),FWLT,NCTY,
X(new high).
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
6 comments:
Hello all :
Gas is in vogue today:
Look at PQ Check out the projects link at PQ's website:
http://www.petroquest.com/
Good luck to all the refiners have not made a come back yet.
Hi Max,
Like your picks, more picks than dry powder. I think gas will continue to go higher all the way to spring. WES is a new IPO thats still under the radar. Distributes gas for andarko and others. Pays divy. New pick GSI is breaking out, PF chart says 16.50. Have a good day. Going to work.
Victor
DRYS rate may go higher
Higher freight rates may dog shipping industry till 2012
Monday, 23 June 2008
Non-availability of bulk carriers and higher freight rates are likely to dog the shipping industry in the next four years, thus creating uncertainty in this sector even as cargo volumes increase from 2,623 million tonnes (mt) in 2006 to an estimated 4,000 mt in 2012 with capacity utilisation averaging 93 to 98 per cent. The freight rates, based on size of the vessel, are expected to go up due to a variety of reasons. Freight of the capsize ship, having a minimum capacity of one lak tonnes, has already increased from $45,000 per day in 2006, to $115,000 in 2007 and now $120,000.
Moreover, the availability of ships is likely to remain tight and daily rates may hover around an average $80,000 for the next couple of years as demand-supply is delicately balanced. The rates for Panamax ships, with capacity ranging from 60,000 mt to 1,000,000 mt, are roughly 50 per cent of that levied on capsize ships. The rates for Supra (40,000 to 60,000 mt) and Handy (20,000 to 40,000 mt) too are quite stiff, sources told Business Line here, quoting an outlook for the bulk shipping market.
Volatile oil markets are expected to push up fuel costs, particularly when, since 2005, bunker (fuel) prices have increased exponentially. As a dirty petroleum product, bunker oil prices are correlated significantly with crude oil and could become even costlier than crude oil prices.
If the suggestion of International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environmental Protection Committee, which met at London in April 2008, about curtailment of SOx (sulphur oxides) and PM (particulate matter) in the exhaust gases are agreed upon by October 2008, as expected, this would further drive up bunker oil prices.
Area of concern
Considering the volume of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) currently used for ships fuel, the refining industry would also be under pressure to produce sufficient bunker oil. The major area of concern in shipping industry in the near future would be availability of bulk cargo carriers. Massive investments in upgrading units would be required in Europe and Asia to increase capacities. Until that happens, demand for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) is going to exert pressure on bunker oil prices significantly.
Dry bulk shipping, a low-growth, and low-margin business till 2002, has exceeded all expectations, resulting in six straight years of extraordinary growth, thanks mainly to steel manufacturers who are moving higher volumes of feedstock such as iron ore and metallurgical coal, besides dry bulk commodities. The electricity generation based on steam coal too has been growing rapidly, opening up opportunities for intercontinental movement of steam coal.
During this six-year period, 80 per cent of the growth has been driven by China, followed by India, South East Asia, West Asia and Africa, which would continue to remain high-growth regions in the near future. Fundamentally, the dry bulk shipping market is expected to grow over 8 per cent annually until 2012.
Growth drivers
Increased iron ore shipment to China is expected to be the prime growth driver while growth would also come from movement of higher volumes of coal, grain as well as minor commodities such as steel products, bauxite and cement.
In a short-term perspective for the next 12 months, the estimated dry bulk shipping growth is expected to absorb the moderate influx of new ship deliveries and tanker conversions. The capacity utilisation is likely to remain in the range of over 90 per cent. The high capacity utilisation coupled with volatile oil prices would expectedly keep freight rates high and volatile.
In the longer term, however, there could be uncertainty not only with regard to dry bulk shipping growth but also the delivery of bulk carriers from Asian ship-building yards. The scheduled deliveries in 2009 and 2010 are seen as staggering, possibly disrupting freight rates as more modern vessels are potentially made available to charterers.
However, problems associated with financing and shipyard costs could lead to shipbuilding orders being delayed or cancelled on a big scale. If so, delivery of new bulk carriers would be stretched out, offering fewer vessels to the charterers than otherwise.
The price of transporting dry bulk commodities, referred to as dry bulk charter rates, is set in highly competitive markets and depends on the demand and supply of tonnage in a given market. Along with the fundamentals, freight rates are also influenced by seasonal variations, changes in trade patterns and productivity factors such as ballasting, slow steaming and port congestion.
Source: Hindu Business Line
Hi Madmax,
Thanks for your ongoing monitoring of Dryship bulk rates.....
DRYS looking very tempting !!!
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
wanted to say hello and hope everything and everyone is allright.
ANR, MOS, RIMM, SKF, SRS.
Hi Ghoad,
Thanks for your note...mother is coming along nicely....
Good luck with your portfolio !!!
Saleem
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